In a landscape where global economic uncertainties loom large, Nigeria has received a timely boost from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The institution has revised its growth projection for Africa’s largest economy upwards to 3.9% for 2025, up from the earlier estimate of 3.4% in July 2025. This upgrade, detailed in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, signals growing confidence in the nation’s recovery trajectory, crediting ongoing reforms under President Bola Tinubu’s administration. But what does this mean for everyday Nigerians, particularly in regions like the Niger Delta, where economic fortunes are intertwined with oil and gas? As we delve deeper, it’s clear that while optimism is warranted, significant hurdles remain.
The IMF’s revision is not isolated; it aligns with a broader positive reassessment of sub-Saharan Africa’s prospects, with the region’s growth forecast nudged up to 4.1% for 2025. For Nigeria specifically, the 3.9% projection for 2025 marks a 0.5 percentage point increase from mid-year estimates, with expectations climbing to 4.1% or even 4.2% in 2026. This comes on the heels of a robust first half of 2025, where Nigeria’s GDP expanded by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing the 3.5% recorded in the same period of 2024. The World Bank echoes this sentiment in its Nigeria Development Update, noting that the economy is gaining momentum, with foreign reserves exceeding $42 billion and public debt projected to decline from 42.9% of GDP.
At the heart of this optimism are President Tinubu’s bold economic reforms, implemented since his inauguration in May 2023. Key among them is the removal of fuel subsidies, a long-standing fiscal drain that had ballooned to unsustainable levels. This move, coupled with the unification of the foreign exchange market, has narrowed the fiscal deficit sharply from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024. Government revenues have surged from N16.8 trillion (7.2% of GDP) to N31.9 trillion (11.5% of GDP), providing much-needed fiscal space. Dele Alake, Minister of Solid Minerals Development, has defended these policies as essential for rebuilding Nigeria’s fiscal foundations, arguing that no future politician would reverse them despite initial pains. The All Progressives Congress (APC) has hailed the global recognition, pointing to the second-quarter 2025 GDP growth of 4.23%—exceeding IMF expectations—as evidence of success.
These reforms have also attracted international investment. A standout development is Shell’s $2 billion commitment to the HI offshore gas project in partnership with Sunlink. Once operational, this initiative will supply 350 million standard cubic feet of gas per day, equivalent to about 60,000 barrels of oil, bolstering Nigeria’s LNG exports and creating jobs. This is particularly relevant for the Niger Delta, a region plagued by oil theft and environmental degradation but now poised to benefit from enhanced upstream investments and improved security measures. Crude oil output averaged 1.68 million barrels per day in the first half of 2025—the highest in years—driving non-oil sectors like services and fintech.
Adding to the positive narrative is Nigeria’s ascension to the chairmanship of the G-24, effective from 1 November 2025. Led by Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso and Minister of Industry, Trade and Investment Doris Uzoka-Anite, this role amplifies Nigeria’s voice in global economic discussions at IMF and World Bank meetings. The government has pledged to advocate for reforms that address emerging market challenges, further enhancing investor confidence.
Yet, this rosy picture is tempered by formidable challenges. Inflation remains a thorn, projected to average between 17% and 21% in 2025, down from 30% but still eroding purchasing power. Headline inflation dropped to 18.02% in September 2025, but food prices continue to burden households. The World Bank warns that despite reform gains, 139 million Nigerians—over half the population—remain in poverty, with high food costs persisting as a major issue. Businesses cite inflation as their top concern for 2025, far ahead of foreign exchange volatility.
The power sector exemplifies these woes. Nigeria’s national grid faces a staggering N5.6 trillion revenue loss as premium customers abandon it for unreliable supply, pushing federal liabilities to N6.2 trillion. Gas companies have reduced supplies due to unpaid debts exceeding N4 trillion, risking an energy crisis. Poor infrastructure, especially electricity, continues to stifle economic activity, with the IMF highlighting it as a key risk alongside falling oil prices and structural constraints.
Expert commentaries reflect this duality. The IMF praises the reforms for stabilising the economy, projecting a trade surplus at 6% of GDP and inflation easing to 23%. However, critics like those in The Cable’s analysis argue that the policies’ hasty implementation has exacerbated hardships in the North and beyond. Daniel Bwala, Special Adviser to President Tinubu, urges focus on non-oil revenue growth, coordinated policies, and expanded social protections to ensure benefits reach the vulnerable. Social media reactions on X (formerly Twitter) vary, with users like @woye1 celebrating the upgrades as evidence of macroeconomic stability, while others express skepticism about trickle-down effects.
For the Niger Delta, the implications are profound. The Shell investment could revitalise local communities through job creation and reduced flaring, but only if environmental safeguards are enforced. With oil production rebounding, the region stands to gain from higher revenues, yet persistent power issues—exacerbated by gas supply cuts—could undermine progress. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) notes a 3% oil drop due to strikes, underscoring the need for labour stability.
The IMF’s upgraded forecast paints Nigeria as an emerging success story in a challenging global environment. With projected growth outpacing many developed nations like the UK (0.7%), Germany (0.2%), and the US (2.6%), the reforms are yielding results. Yet, for this momentum to translate into tangible improvements, addressing inflation, power deficits, and poverty is crucial. As Governor Cardoso assumes the G-24 helm, Nigeria has a platform to push for supportive global policies. The path ahead is rocky, but with sustained effort, 2025 could mark the dawn of sustainable prosperity—especially for resource-rich areas like the Niger Delta. The question remains: will the gains reach the grassroots, or will they remain confined to macroeconomic indicators?
