As Nigeria grapples with fluctuating global oil prices and a push toward energy diversification, the Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) has issued a stark warning: the country’s crude oil production could plummet in the coming decade without aggressive new exploration and discoveries, particularly in the hydrocarbon-rich Niger Delta basin. Speaking on the second day of NAPE’s 43rd Annual International Conference and Exhibition in Lagos—under the theme “Revitalizing the Nigerian Petroleum Exploration and Production Strategies for Energy Security and Sustainable Development”—NAPE President Johnbosco Uche emphasized that sustained investment in frontier and deepwater plays is non-negotiable for averting economic fallout.
The conference, running from November 9 to 13 at Eko Hotels & Suites, has drawn over 1,000 upstream professionals, policymakers, and investors to tackle these challenges head-on. Uche’s remarks build on his pre-conference alert on November 6, underscoring the urgency as Nigeria’s current output hovers around 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd)—well below the 2025 target of 1.78 million bpd and the ambitious 3 million bpd goal by 2026. “We cannot achieve energy security without deliberate policy alignment, increased investment, and a renewed exploration drive,” Uche stated during a media parley, highlighting the dual pressures of maturing fields and the global energy transition.
The Looming Decline: Maturing Fields and Stagnant Reserves
Nigeria’s proven oil reserves stand at approximately 37.28 billion barrels, but with production rates outpacing new finds, experts warn of a natural depletion trajectory. The Niger Delta, which accounts for over 90% of the country’s oil output, has seen a sharp drop in major discoveries since the 1990s—down from multi-billion-barrel finds like the 1996 Erha field to marginal ones in recent years. Without replenishment, Uche projects a potential 20-30% output decline by 2035, threatening fiscal revenues that fund 70% of the national budget and exacerbating vulnerabilities in a mono-economy still reeling from subsidy removals and naira volatility.
Compounding this, over 55 oil licenses in the Niger Delta are set to expire by year-end, with operators uncertain about renewals amid regulatory hurdles and divestments by majors like Shell and ExxonMobil. These expirations could idle key blocks, further stalling exploration. “The days of easy oil are gone,” Uche noted, calling for advanced seismic imaging and AI-driven analytics to unlock untapped deepwater prospects estimated at 3.5 billion barrels in undeveloped fields.
| Key Niger Delta Exploration Challenges & Opportunities | Details |
|---|---|
| Current Output Contribution | ~1.3M bpd from onshore/offshore; 40% of mangroves degraded by spills, deterring investment. |
| Untapped Potential | Ultra-deepwater zones hold 10B+ barrels; marginal fields like OML 100 could add 500M barrels with tech upgrades. |
| Barriers to Growth | Oil theft/vandalism costing $3B annually; 55 licenses expiring; low rig count (37 active vs. 50 needed). |
| Path Forward | Gas as bridge fuel (target: 12B scf/d by 2027); PIA incentives for frontier basins; public-private partnerships for seismic data sharing. |
Government Response: Restructuring NNPC for Revival
Echoing NAPE’s concerns, Special Adviser to the President on Energy, Olu Verheijen, used the conference platform to announce potential restructuring of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Ltd.) assets. NNPC’s exploration arm, NEPL, currently produces just 220,000 bpd—less than 10% of national totals—prompting calls for performance-based reforms to unlock incremental growth. “Nigeria cannot hit 3 million bpd under the current model,” Verheijen asserted, advocating a shift toward indigenous-led greenfield projects and escrow funds for decommissioning to attract FDI.
Industry heavyweights like Shell, a Titanium sponsor, showcased their divestment strategies at the exhibition, highlighting $50 billion in contributions over 60 years while committing to Bonga North and HI projects for sustained deepwater output. Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, and Ondo Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa toured booths, signaling high-level buy-in.
Gas as the Bridge: A Sustainable Pivot
Uche urged prioritizing gas development—Nigeria’s 200 trillion cubic feet reserves—as a cleaner transition fuel to power industries and curb flaring, which wastes $2 billion yearly. Sessions on AI in seismic interpretation and carbon capture underscore NAPE’s forward-looking agenda, blending fossil fuels with low-carbon tech to align with COP30 goals.
As the conference unfolds, stakeholders from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and international firms debate fiscal incentives under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). For the Niger Delta’s communities—long plagued by spills and underdevelopment—these talks offer hope for equitable growth, but only if words translate to wells. “Our actions today must secure the energy of tomorrow,” Uche concluded, a rallying cry for a sector at the crossroads.
