In the heart of Africa’s largest economy, a persistent challenge looms large: Nigeria’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials. Recent data reveals that the country expended a staggering N3.53 trillion on such imports during the first half of 2025 (H1’25), marking a 19.7% increase from N2.95 trillion in the corresponding period of 2024. This surge underscores the structural vulnerabilities in Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, where local production capacity struggles to meet industrial demands. As the naira faces ongoing pressures and global supply chains remain volatile, this figure not only highlights economic dependencies but also raises questions about the efficacy of ongoing reforms aimed at fostering self-sufficiency.
The breakdown of these imports paints a vivid picture of Nigeria’s industrial landscape. Predominantly, these expenditures fuel sectors like manufacturing, agriculture, and construction, which continue to import essential inputs such as chemicals, machinery parts, and semi-processed goods. Analysts attribute the rise to several factors: heightened demand from a recovering post-pandemic economy, inflationary pressures pushing up global commodity prices, and inadequate domestic infrastructure for backward integration. For instance, the manufacturing sector, which contributes about 10% to Nigeria’s GDP, has long decried the lack of reliable power and raw material sourcing, forcing firms to look abroad. This dependency exacerbates foreign exchange shortages, with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) reporting increased FX allocations for imports amid naira stabilisation efforts. Compounding this, non-oil exports—while growing—have not offset the outflow, with local investors missing out on a N4.8 trillion boom in that arena due to foreign dominance.
President Bola Tinubu’s administration has positioned itself as a champion of economic diversification, vowing to curtail such outflows through targeted policies. In recent statements, Tinubu has emphasised boosting local industries to reduce import bills, aligning with broader goals like ending medical tourism—a practice that drains billions annually as Nigerians seek treatment overseas. Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin reiterated this commitment, highlighting federal investments in healthcare infrastructure, such as the approval of seven major projects at Aminu Kano Teaching Hospital, aimed at curbing medical tourism and retaining capital within Nigeria. These initiatives, including upgrades to diagnostic centres and specialised wards, are part of a strategy to enhance domestic capabilities across sectors. Tinubu’s determination, as Jibrin noted, extends to industrial reforms, with incentives for local manufacturing under the Nigeria Industrial Revolution Plan. Yet, critics argue that while rhetoric is strong, implementation lags; for example, persistent power shortages and bureaucratic hurdles continue to hinder progress.
Amid these challenges, there are glimmers of optimism in the financial markets. The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) recorded a 1.36% weekly gain in early October 2025, reflecting renewed investor confidence. By 21 October, the NGX All-Share Index climbed to 151,457 points, up 1.01% from the previous session, with a year-to-date return of +26.27%. This buoyancy is driven by sectors like banking and industrials, buoyed by CBN’s FX reforms and anticipated interest rate adjustments. Market analysts at Nairametrics suggest this uptick signals faith in Tinubu’s agenda, with equities benefiting from diversified portfolios shifting away from import-heavy vulnerabilities. However, commentators like those at Opinion Nigeria warn that the import surge defies import substitution goals, potentially widening trade deficits if not addressed. Economic expert Dr. Muda Yusuf, former Director-General of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce, has called for accelerated investments in agro-processing and mining to reverse the trend, arguing that “Nigeria’s resource wealth must translate into industrial self-reliance, not perpetual importation.”
The implications of this N3.53 trillion bill extend beyond economics. Environmentally, over-reliance on imports perpetuates underutilisation of local resources, while socially, it stifles job creation in value chains that could employ millions. As global trade tensions rise—think US-China tariffs and Red Sea disruptions—Nigeria’s exposure could intensify forex volatility. Yet, with policies like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) gaining traction, opportunities abound for intra-African sourcing.
Nigeria’s H1’25 import figures serve as a wake-up call for deeper reforms. While Tinubu’s pledges offer hope, translating them into tangible outcomes will require concerted efforts from government, private sector, and international partners. As the NGX’s positive trajectory suggests, investor optimism persists, but sustainable growth demands reducing this import dependency. The path to economic sovereignty is arduous, yet achievable—if Nigeria harnesses its vast potential.
